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Monday, October 13, 2014

Petron Corporation (PCOR) OCT 13 2014

Petron Corporation is interesting to be on the spotlight after the movement of the oil commodity instrument especially the West Texas Instrument. Will Petron be affected by this sudden shift of general market sentiment on Oil. Since this is really a technical view, and fundamentals are rapidly changing as reflected in the market prices of oil. With the introduction of shale as an alternative or additive source for energy consumption then probably it should affect Petron Corporation substantially. Unless Petron would adapt. Anyways, staying true to the technical analysis... Petron might break the 10 peso psychological support in the next few months or two quarters. It all depends on the market sentiment and corporate action or response of Petron in the next few months.

Sunday, October 12, 2014

Robinson Retail Holdings, Inc. OCT 13 2014

We're going to look into another listed retailer in the roster of the Philippine publicly listed companies. This time we turn our heads to Robinson Retail Holdings, Inc. (RRHI). RRHI lately developed a potential complex head and shoulder pattern with a deformed uneven formation of the head. Note the complex head and shoulder pattern can turn out to be another pattern called as broadening top pattern. It's one of the megaphone variety patterns. Subject to personal interpretation, price action could go downwards to tap or reach the 49 peso level again. Should that happen, RRHI has already forewarned through the price pattern. Since the pattern seen is not a trending pattern and still needs confirmation or an intending price reversal the 49 peso potential target is still just a target.

PGOLD OCT 13 2014

Let's place the price action of Puregold into the technical review. The most current potential price pattern that can be identified is a potential diamond price pattern. The diamond price pattern can be a sign of reversal or a sign of continuation. It really depends. Looking a greater distance though, the pattern seems a bit hard to identify. Go to weeklies to understand. Since prices have topped near middle of May, price have gone awry. It is interesting to note though, before price went down a price pattern emerged. An ascending triangle emerged that seems to try to imply that the correction is about to end and the resumption of price advance will inevitably follow. The market however second guessed the ascending triangle. After what could be definitely called a failed breakout from that first pattern a second pattern emerged. A tight descending triangle emerged that tried to confirm a shift in the attitude of the market towards Puregold. Dropping from 42++ to 32++ a new potential pattern has emerged. That is if the pattern will provide an actual signal still remains to be seen. Market action however might lean towards continuation of falling, except that a possible strong support can be found near 31.8. So is this new potential diamond pattern a sign of reversal or will it be a sign of continuation of the prevailing price action? Note since middle of May till the close of October 10, 2014 Puregold is in the bearish territory. Prices displayed bearishness for more than 2 months with prices atleast depressed  32.68% from its 48.5 high.
Charts above are dailies and weeklies.

Sunday, October 5, 2014

COAL OCT 5 2014

What we have here is COAL Asia Holdings. Current trend of the issue is downtrend. Should there be a continuation of the prevailing trend, there's a safe assumption that prices might go below the 1 peso mark. Should the 1 peso major psychological support be breached, the initial price target should be at 0.9152 or at 0.92 cents. The target price is a wild guess based on the assumption that the prior Strong up run on April 29 2014 will be retraced by atleast 50%. Open, High, Low and Close for that day are the following 0.79, 1.04, 0.79, and 1.03. That day is a strong white candle day. 50% of the range of the white candle is 24 cents divided by 2 which is 12 cents, adding that to the low or open of the day. is 0.91. 0.9152 if you'll consider the high instead of the close. This issue is still highly speculative. It still has to report on the quality and quantity of its proven reserves of coal. For short term players support is pegged at 1.13. Resistance is seen at 1.37. Resistance is designated with a window! Japanese term for the Western term of gap.

BPI OCT 5 2014

Another Bear Call for BPI common shares. It's been more than a year since I covered BPI. The most current pattern we drew is called the rising wedge. The Rising Wedge is significant (probably) because it signals weakness for prices ahead. Note the 2 red dots. The first instance of the red dot was near the hundreds. The second instance is also at the same 100 level. Price could go sour for the short-term. The weeklies and the daily charts seems to confirm each other.
The encircled portions are significant because it demonstrate Japanese Candle Stick Patterns. Circle 1 demonstrate bearish dark cloud covering pattern. Circle 2 demonstrate Top Twizzer. It's significant because of the level where it appeared and should it be placed in conjunction with Western Chart Pattern of the Rising Wedge (up sloping triangle). It's definitely calling out for caution.
This is the daily version of the 2 year time frame chart. Rising Wedge is definitely also there. Macd indicator looks bearish divergent. RSI also showing bearish divergence.
Before we ultimately put a bearish verdict on this issue. Let's look for two reasons why BPI isn't bearish at all. 1. Notice that the major downtrend line was broken in both weeklies and daily charts. However, after the break through, prices are sluggish and shows lots of weakness. 2. There's still no confirmation for the bearish call of the rising wedge. Definitely it's bearish outlook needs to be confirmed.

Saturday, October 4, 2014

GREEN OCT 5, 2014

Author been watching this stock for quite some time. This issue has been trendless for more or less 10 months. It's about to change it's par value from 1 cent to 1 peso. Prices seem to lethargic. Not much happening. Prices are ranging between 0.0097 to 0.0120. But from August to present prices been behaving well within 0.0100 to 0.0110. Interesting to know that the 65 sma and 130 sma have leveled from a declining trend. 260 sma however is about to either level out or cause some pressure or unbalance.
Greenergy prices in weekly mode.

Chart source from advfn. Price displayed on weeklies within the time frame of 2 years. Prices have stalled the down trend that can be easily seen from the chart. The 13 weeks sma (Blue) has leveled and crossed the 26 weeks sma (Red). Note also interestingly prices did attempt to break the 52 week moving sma (Green) 4 times. The 52 week sma seems to be leveling out too. The question is what does the convergence of the 3 sma moving average says about GREEN? Will Green succumbed to another round of decline anytime soon or weak hands are exiting enmasse to finally let pressure off Green. Note that Support and Resistance is pegged at 0.0097 and 0.012 respectively.
Quotation for Greenergy.
 As mentioned the 260 simple moving average is hovering above the 0.011 level. Interestingly the effect on the current quotation seems phenomenal. Traders have been reluctant to sell immediately at 0.01. Buyers are scarce. The question is will prices continue the bear market for this particular issue or will prices settle for a long dull range trade?

Is the issue providing a good set up for a reversal? Only if the market decides to do so. Another interesting thing is are we seeing the exodus of weak hands? Sign of better days to come?
Comments are not stipulated as recommendation to buy nor sell.

Sunday, July 21, 2013

INTERESTING CHART PATTERNS of some Philippine Stocks part 2

Note: This is not a solicitation of buy or sell recommendation. Place your trade at your own risk. This is an opportunity to cross check notes and ideas.